As the two largest economies globally, the economic and trade relations between China and the United States have always been a focal point for the world.
Since China joined the World Trade Organization, its foreign trade exports have surged rapidly, especially the trade volume with the United States, which has maintained continuous growth.
The United States is the world's largest consumer market, while China is the world's largest manufacturing center.
The U.S. annually imports a significant amount of goods from China, with most of the essential items in American households being made in China.
Thus, in the early years, China's exports to the U.S. supported the development of the entire foreign trade.
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However, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, a significant shift occurred for the first time in 2023.
In the past year, the amount of goods imported by the U.S. from China was $427 billion, and China lost its position as the U.S.'s top importer for the first time.
The continuous decline in China-U.S. trade indicates that the U.S. has evolved into a financial empire.
With the advancement of deindustrialization, the U.S. has transferred most of its manufacturing industry, leaving only high-end manufacturing, high-tech, finance, and other service industries.
As a result, the U.S. relies on imports for daily necessities needed by its citizens.
In this process, "Made in China" has risen rapidly, becoming the world's factory, and the U.S. has imported a large amount of goods from China.
Especially after 2008, the trade volume between China and the U.S. has maintained a relatively fast growth, with China becoming the U.S.'s largest commodity importer, a position that has been held for 15 years.
However, according to the U.S. statistical data, China lost this status for the first time last year and is no longer the U.S.'s largest importer.
Interestingly, according to China's data, the decline in China's exports to the U.S. is not as exaggerated, and China remains the largest importer to the U.S.
According to China's data, in 2023, the trade volume between China and the U.S. decreased by 11%, with a trade volume of over $660 billion.
China's exports to the U.S. were $500.2 billion, imports from the U.S. exceeded $160 billion, and the trade surplus exceeded $330 billion.
The U.S.'s data is $427 billion, while China's data is $500.2 billion.
The discrepancy indicates a significant difference in the way China and the U.S. calculate imports and exports.
However, regardless of the perspective, the decline in the China-U.S. trade volume has been ongoing for several years, and the trade peak between China and the U.S. has become a thing of the past, influenced by many complex factors.
Who has "replaced" China?
According to the U.S. statistical data, China has lost its position as the U.S.'s top importer, and it is Mexico that has "replaced" China.
According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. imported $475 billion worth of goods from Mexico in 2023, surpassing China for the first time.
Moreover, the amount of goods imported by the U.S. from Canada has also surpassed China, and China has fallen to third place in the U.S.'s import rankings.
Under the direct impact of the U.S.'s forced decoupling, Mexico has become the biggest beneficiary.
Due to its proximity to the U.S. and the advantage of its young labor force, it has naturally become a nearshore outsourcing base that the U.S. values.
The U.S. is also sparing no effort in promoting the de-Sinicization of the industrial chain.
In terms of low-end labor-intensive industries, the U.S. has expanded imports from Mexico, Southeast Asia, and other places, and in high-end industries, it chooses to import from Europe, while also joining Europe, Japan, and South Korea to restrict and sanction the development of China's high-end manufacturing and high-tech industries.
These factors all directly affect the direction of China-U.S. trade.
However, in the short term, the Mexican and Southeast Asian markets are highly dependent on China's comprehensive supply chain, playing the role of a "transit station."
In 2023, China's exports to Mexico exceeded $80 billion, continuing to grow.
In the long term, the U.S.'s decoupling measures continue, and we must also prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
On the one hand, we continue to expand trade with Europe and the U.S., accelerate industrial upgrading, and increase the proportion of high-end product exports.
On the other hand, we look for new export growth points.
In fact, China has been preparing for this for many years, continuously expanding trade and economic cooperation with countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative.
In 2023, China's total trade with "Belt and Road" countries reached 19.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 46% of China's total foreign trade, and continues to grow.
China-Russia trade volume reached $240 billion for the first time, with a 26% increase.
Russia has successively surpassed Vietnam and Australia to become China's sixth-largest trading partner, and China-Russia trade is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future, surpassing Japan and South Korea.
From a single country perspective, the U.S. remains China's largest trading partner, with a very large scale of trade volume, but the downward trend has formed.
We should not be too pessimistic, but we should not be overly confident either.
Besides the U.S., there are larger markets such as the European Union, ASEAN, Africa, South America, Russia, and the Middle East, and foreign trade exports still have great potential and a huge market space.
Moreover, China has a huge market of 1.4 billion people.
As long as the domestic market truly develops, it can accommodate a larger consumption scale.
At present, industrial transformation and upgrading are more urgent.
If the industrial upgrading is successful, China's export structure will undergo significant changes, no longer being low-end value-added products, but high-end products, forming a reverse export to developed countries.
Moreover, high-end industries can bring higher profits, improve the overall income of the nation, which is beneficial for exports, consumption, and the long-term healthy development of the economy.